8  SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

8.1  Introduction

An important part of the activities by Task Force 4 has been towards outlining a spatial ICZM Plan. This work has been carried out based upon traditional planning approaches using demographic pressure as a key element in developing management/planning strategies. Socio-economy will be covered and analysed to much greater detail in the draft ICZM spatial plan document⁷⁷, which is considered the precursor for the ICZM Plan document. However, the information and discussion presented in the current section draw considerably on the spatial planning efforts.

8.3  Socio-Economy in the Data Dictionary

Figure 36: Socio-Economic Background in the Data Dictionary

The socio-economic background for ICZM has been grouped by administrative boundaries down to the sub-district level, by urban and rural population and by households, by sectoral contribution to GDP by labour force and by coverage of physical plans. At the ICZM level of the Project it was considered of little relevance to subdivide demographic parameters further, although such considerations should be given at more local level management, where ethnic groups, age structure,, etc. should be included. The GDP contributions likewise are only differentiated into the broad sector structure applied in the annual statistics.

8.3  Demography

8.3.1  Description

Data presented relates to Historical Population for the State collected as a whole during each Census since 1951 and Total Population for each District by year (1980 and 1991) and split according to whether it is classified as Urban or Rural by the Department of Statistics. Urban is defined as gazetted areas with their adjoining built-up areas having a combined population of 10,000 or more. Rural is the remainder of the population. Data is also provided for both Urban and Rural households in 1991 and as a Total for 1980. The concept of a household is based on arrangements for food and other essentials for living within the same living quarters.

8.3.2  Omissions

Data on gender, age-groups or ethnic classifications are not included. These details are considered unnecessary for a rapid assessment of the characteristics of the coastal zone and are unlikely to be of use for decision-making at the regional scale. A detailed analysis of District characteristics would require such data. At present the Department of Statistics does not have data on individual Enumeration Boundaries (EB) in digital format. It is only in sketch form and its prime use is by enumerators during each Census. We recommend that production of such a digital map should be a priority before the 2001 Census takes place. Much of the base data required for such maps is already stored at the Department of Lands & Survey and should be released without cost to the Department of Statistics. Data on the breakdown of household size by Urban and Rural is apparently not available for 1980. At a regional scale this is not crucial: it will be included as part of the next Census to enable a comparison with 1991.

Although more recent socio-economic projections are available from the Department of Statistics⁷⁸, these have not been used as presented figures on population and employment may require rechecking. That Department is currently assessing this. For example, the projected working age (15-64) population in Table 3.4 (statistical yearbook) has risen 396,900 (1993-97) whereas the increase in employed persons in Table 9.1 (statistical yearbook) (1992-96) was some 523,500. Either the projections are not compatible or there is a very high amount of official double counting due to many workers being classified as having more than one job. The figures make meaningful analysis difficult, as an "employed person" must actually be a "job" in many cases. Assuming the 1991 labour force characteristics in Table 6.5 below for 1996 would give the actual number of employed at around 223,500 for 1996 compared to the Department of Statistics figure of 523,500. The difference is some 300,000 employed persons.

8.3.3  Data and Analysis

In Table 54, although natural rates of growth have tended to be higher than for Malaysia as a whole in the past, the most significant ingredient of the population increase has been migration. Given Sabah’s position, adjoining East Kalimantan and a long coastline in close proximity to Mindanao, it is not surprising that there is external population pressure seeking employment opportunities, especially along the east coast. Even during the 1960’s a detailed study⁷⁹ concluded that migration contributed 0.85% of the 3.66% AAGR. In the 1980’s it is likely that international migration has contributed up to half of the overall 5.67% growth, given that there is also out-migration between Sabah and other Malaysian states. The 1991 Census reports that Sabah has the highest percentage of foreign born population (22.1) and also the highest percentage of population who migrated to Malaysia in the period 1986-91 (7.0).

Table 54: Historical Population Growth (000)

Source: 1970, 1980 and 1991 Census from Statistics Department, Sabah

In terms of total population in Table 55, the fastest growing Districts have been Lahad Datu, Kunak, Kinabatangan, Penampang and Pensiangan, with at least 7% AAGR. The growth in Penampang reflects the proximity of Kota Kinabalu while Pensiangan total numbers are insignificant on a state basis. Most of the high growth rates are occurring along the east coast with AAGR > 5% also being experienced in Tawau, Semporna, Sandakan and Labuk Sugut. Conversely, the lowest growing locations are in the extreme south-west (Kuala Penyu 1.16% and Beaufort 2.65%) and north (Kota Belud 2.25% and Tuaran 2.54%). In terms of total numbers, Tawau is the largest of the 3 main Districts, although the figures for Kota Kinabalu exclude Penampang.

Table 55: Total, Urban & Rural Population by District

Source: 1980 and 1991 Census from Statistics Department, Sabah
Notes: 1) Kunak was in Lahad Datu in 1980. 2) Pensiangan also known as Nabawan

Urban growth rates in excess of 9% AAGR have been experienced in Kota Kinabalu, Tawau and Lahad Datu/Kunak. Of the 9 Districts with urban population in 1991, analysis of rates for Semporna, Ranau, Kudat, Keningau and Kunak are not possible from the above statistics given that they had no classified urban areas in 1980. It is expected that several other Districts will have official urban populations by the time of the next Census. Except for Keningau, all urban population is located in the Coastal Zone.

Table 56: Total Households by District 1980 & 1991

Source: Population Report for Local Authority Areas, Population and Housing Census of Malaysia 1980 (December 1986) and 1991 Census from Statistics Department, Sabah. An Urban/Rural split was not available in 1980. Note: Kunak was in Lahad Datu in 1980. Pensiangan also known as Nabawan. Pitas had 16,000 people but no official households in 1980.

Rural population rates have also been significant in some locations, but it is uncertain how much of this is really rural growth and how much is growth of centres which are yet to be classified as urban. It is certain that Kota Kinabalu is experiencing a decline in its rural population (-0.67% AAGR).

From the total figures for households in Table 56 it appears that household formation increased by 106.4% compared to a population growth of 86.7% over the 1980-91 period. So overall household sizes are getting smaller (from 5.7 to 5.1 between the two Census), which is a general trend as society as a whole becomes more wealthy.

8.3.4  Using the Data

With demographic data for only one year its uses are limited. Data can be compared between Districts and a range of simple population densities can be calculated. These have little value by themselves. Addition of data on smaller enumeration areas, land uses and land suitability can produce more meaningful density calculations. Demographic analysis can be more usefully undertaken when there are 2 or more years of data, preferably with several years interval. This establishes an Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) between data points in time. The AAGR is a percentage and is calculated as follows when ln = natural log, P¹ = data from year 1 (e.g. 1980), P² = data from year 2 ( e.g. 1991) and t = time between the 2 points (e.g. 11 years). In MS Excel the calculation would be:

The established AAGR can be projected forwards as a trend to establish what the population would be at some point in the future. This can be a good indicator for planning purposes, e.g. with regard to services and the impact of people upon natural resources. Assuming exp = the exponential growth rate and r = the AAGR, the following equation can be used in MS Excel to calculate the Trend population in any future year:

8.3.5  Implications

An indication of what these demographic characteristics mean for the future can be gauged by making a projection. In the absence of any reliable official projections a "Trend" projection can be made. "Trend" involves calculating growth rates previously experienced between certain dates and projecting them forwards to some point in time. Trend projections are not predictions. They are used as an exercise to answer the question "What would be the impact of the continuation of such rates on natural resources and what infrastructure would be required to support such growth?" In the absence of any firm predictions then "Trend" is a good indicator of likely short-term change. Clearly, what happens in the past is likely to continue unless there is some reason for change. So urban growth, once started, is likely to continue in a similar location. Trend assumes "non-intervention" in trying to influence future development patterns.

Recent training to enable preparation of an ICZM Spatial Plan has used the year 2005 for projection purposes based upon results of the 1980 and 1991 Census. In extracting from that document the following Trend conclusions can be drawn:

• total population would increase from 1.7 million in 1991 to 3.9 million in 2005;
• inwards migration would account for perhaps half of this growth but influencing the migratory pressures of those from the southern Philippines and Indonesia seeking a better life is mostly outside the control of the State or Federal government;
• an average increase of 158,000 persons per year will put heavy pressure on existing resources, both natural and man-made;
• Lahad Datu would join Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Tawau as a major District centre;
• "urban" population would increase from 33% to 45% of the total (even without reclassification of many rural areas to "urban");
• urban growth rates of around 10% per annum (all 4 major centres) require massive supporting infrastructure and disruption to services;
• as all urban population (except Keningau) is located along the coast, this puts heavy pressure on lowland and marine resources;
• higher growth within the east coast Districts⁸⁰ means that the area’s total population would rise from 49% to 54% of the State total;
• rapid urban growth on the east coast would raise its share of urban population from 63% to 67% of the total;
• rates of rural population growth are high (4%) on a national basis, although much of this increase would probably be reclassified as urban growth in the next Census.

8.4  Labour Force and GDP

8.4.1  Description

The data is presented for 1980, 1991 and 1996 according to the official economic sub-sectors which can themselves be agglomerated into the 3 main sectors, notably Primary, Secondary (or manufacturing) and Tertiary (or Services). Each of the individual sub-sector’s contribution to overall State (GDP) is also shown for 1996. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the total value of goods and services produced within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production but before deducting allowances for the consumption on fixed capital. It is often referred to as "value added". The labour force includes all persons aged 15-64 (working age population) who are either employed or actively or inactivity unemployed. It excludes those not at work, without jobs and not wanting work. The labour force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population, which is in the labour force.

8.4.2  Omissions

The 1991 Census includes detailed breakdowns of economic data by industry classification and by profession. We have included a summary of working age population, labour force participation rates, labour force, employment rate and persons employed for the state as a whole in 1991. This is sufficient for a rapid assessment of the employment structure but would need to be supplemented with selected data for a more detailed examination for planning purposes. Although the amount of employment for 1996 is included in the following tables, no analysis has been attempted for employment growth after 1991 given the discrepancies in the Department of Statistics Yearbook for 1997 as stated in Section 6.2 above. Projected 1996 employment rates look even more suspicious when compared to GDP per sub-sector. So although GDP from Manufacturing grew by 62% (1992-96) its employment grew 253%. Even in the Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry grouping where GDP increased only 2.6% from 1992-96 (due to the decline in forestry), employment rose by 67%.

8.4.3  Data and Analysis

In term of total numbers shown in Table 57, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry sub-sector has generated the highest employment from 1980-91 (except for Community/social grouping) while at the same time contributing the highest share of GDP in 1996. However, the primary sector’s share of employment has declined from 57% to 43% over the same period. The Wholesale & Retail Trade grouping also grew significantly in terms of total numbers (43,000) or some 20% of total employment growth.

Table 57: Employment by Sub-Sector 1980-96 and GDP 1996

Source: 1980 and 1991 Census and Yearbook of Statistics 1997, Statistics Department, Sabah.
Notes: 1) At 1978 prices. 2) Construction sometimes included in the secondary sector. 3) GDP also includes other inputs so the total does not add.

Overall, employment in the Primary sectors grew by some 25% in 1980-91 whereas the Secondary sector (manufacturing) grew by 197% and the Tertiary sectors by 120%.

The GDP contribution from the Manufacturing sub-sector has been the most dynamic in the recent past (1992-96), growing from 769 to 1,246 M$ million (at 1978 prices). In total numbers this growth has been supported by Wholesale/Retail/Trade which has been growing more slowly and also by Mining/Quarrying which is in decline. The rapid growth sub-sectors have been Hotels and Restaurants (part of Wholesale/Retail/Trade) and Finance. The Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry grouping has had a mixed recent past, with a decline in GDP from forestry, consistent growth in fishing and small annual increases in agriculture.

Table 58: Labour Force Characteristics

Source: 1991 Census, Statistics Department, Sabah.

In the absence of detailed figures on some aspects of Labour force characteristics it should be noted that the number of employed as a percentage of the population declined from 37% in 1980 to nearly to 32.5% in 1991. So employment growth at 4.5% is slightly less than population at 5.7% per annum.

8.4.4  Using the Data

In addition to using the AAGR for employment projections there are several variables for inclusion in an analysis of labour forces and GDP. The calculations shown in Table 58 show the progression from total population to the employed labour force. In between these two figures analysis is possible on:

working age population (aged 15-64) and how this compares as a percentage of the whole, both now and in future. This is especially relevant when migration is an issue. Prediction of numbers of persons in each age group is relatively easy using cohort survival in a closed system but the introduction of various categories of migrants (young singles of both sexes, some families and possibly joining grandparents) makes prediction of future age group composition difficult;

labour force participation rate and the reasons why a certain number do not enter the labour force, e.g. students and families with only one wage earner;

employment rate which reflects jobs opportunities and indicates the "tightness" of the labour market. This in turn may feed back into in-migration pressures (if there seems to be good possibilities of obtaining work) and out-migration to other States or other countries (if job prospects are poor in certain sectors).

8.4.5  Implications

As stated above, employment data has been compared for the last 2 Census years rather than as contained in the latest statistical publication. Figures for GDP are taken from that publication for years 1992 and 1996 in the absence of any other data. The following implications become apparent:

there is a continuing shift away from Primary sector activities towards Secondary and Service sub-sectors in terms of employment but the Primary groupings are still the largest, employing some 43% of total employment in 1991. But the GDP of Manufacturing grew by 62% (1992-96) compared to less than 3% in the same period for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Priority might usefully be given to labour-intensive manufacturing preferably using primary products from the State to support both sectors and employ as many of the rapidly growing population as possible;

policy decisions relating to the Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry grouping are crucial with population pressure giving the continuing need to boost GDP from limited lowland areas where there is competition from a variety of food and cash crops;

with Fisheries being the main Primary growth area in recent years there is a danger of overusing marine resources in an attempt to further boost production for export and home consumers;

the economic turndown may limit the continued growth of both employment and GDP in the manufacturing and services sectors. This is likely to force many to seek a living within the Primary sectors and may put more pressure on marginal land and coastal resources;

in the 1980-91 period, population grew marginally faster than employment. Continued in-migration means that major job creation is essential to limit unemployment and associated social pressures.

8.5  Physical Plans and Policies

8.5.1  Locations and Status

A list of current Physical Plans together with their latest status are contained in Table 59 . The locations of Schemes and Comprehensive Development Plans have been displayed in Figure 37 . The locations of Local Plans have been displayed in Figure 38 . The locations of Town Plans have been displayed in Figure 39.

8.5.2  Implications

There are a large number of schemes and town plans, which have been prepared by the Town and Regional Planning Department. There are a variety of levels of process regarding status ranging from adoption by the relevant local authority to approval by the cabinet. It can be a lengthy process from plan preparation to final adoption. A number of comments can be made regarding the physical planning system in Sabah:

Table 59: Physical Plans in Sabah and their Status, 1998

Figure 37: Location of Schemes and Comprehensive Development Plans in Sabah

Figure 38: Location of Local Plans in Sabah

Figure 39: Location of Town Plans in Sabah